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Biden's Ukraine Policies, Democratic Party's Intolerance Help Drive Voter Exodus_我的网站

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一 |     According to data collected by AP, more than one million Democrats have registered as Republicans during the course of the past twelve months, most notably among independent "swing voters" in highly-populated suburbs, where presidential and national congressional elections are usually decided. AP in its report published on Monday said the switch also encompassed agricultural regions, poor inner cities, and small towns.,The Democratic voter mass defections coincide with Biden’s approval ratings sinking to historical lows as inflation runs at all-time highs with mid-term elections looming in November.,Meanwhile, the White House’s policies toward the conflict in Ukraine are also becoming less popular. A poll released on Tuesday by Morning Consult Global shows American support for sanctions against Russia is steadily declining - largely because of rising energy costs.,"Workers and seniors are ravaged by an inflationary curse sparked by an inept war against the fossil fuel industry," political analyst and former hedge fund manager, Charles Ortel, said when asked about the Democratic voter exodus.,The Democratic voter defections and low approval ratings, he added, could indicate Biden administration efforts to rally patriotism around his "tough" policies against Russia over Ukraine have failed.,Biden Blames 'Putin's Tax' for Rising Food, Gas Prices in US During Speech on Record Inflation10 June, 18:22 GMT,Political commentator and historian Dan Lazare believes the fact voters are switching parties is less an endorsement of the Republican Party than a loss of confidence in Democrats, especially in their handling of the Ukraine crisis and the related rise in gas prices.,"Skyrocketing gas prices are the gift that keeps on giving - for the Republicans, that is. The war in Ukraine is turning into a Democratic nightmare as Russia continues to reap real battlefield gains," Lazare said. "So, what Democrat wouldn't lose faith given a record like that?",Ortel said history suggests that citizens reluctantly support foreign conflicts even when leaders provide compelling evidence that the causes are justified. Not to mention, US efforts that started under the Clinton administration to push NATO eastward have never been explained nor have potential costs and complaints by the Russian side, Ortel said.,"No sane actor wants perpetual conflict," Ortel explained. "And no American would tolerate parallel expansion into Mexico or Canada by Russia.",Other Drivers of Discontent,Ortel also attributed the voter surge away from the Democrats to the party’s "intolerant" attitude, including toward those who oppose the administration’s Ukraine policies. The Democratic Party used to be a group that embraced cooperation and was tolerant of perspectives that competed with liberal or progressive views. However, in recent years that has changed, Ortel said.,"Particularly under the Obama-Biden Administration, tolerance for other viewpoints was replaced with a ‘take-no-prisoners’ approach towards any challengers," Ortel said.,To make matters worse, the analyst added, Biden administration officials propagate theories and slogans claiming they are succeeding "when even unschooled citizens see clearly that Biden and his team are rapidly wrecking the American economy and what remains of America's standing abroad.",Other drivers of voters fleeing the Democratic Party are the questions surrounding the commander-in-chief’s mental stability in light of nonstop gaffes and concerns over Vice President Kamala Harris’s capabilities, Ortel said.,"Joe Biden is clearly not playing with mental faculties intact nor is Kamala Harris fit to replace him," Ortel said.,Lazare has pointed to Biden’s dismal domestic policy record as another culprit.,"Joe Biden is The Incredible Shrinking President: His one significant success, the $1.9-trillion COVID-19 relief bill that passed in February 2021, has roundly backfired by giving inflation a significant boost. Everything else has meanwhile flopped," he said.,Meanwhile, Lazare added, voting reform is dead in the water, student debt relief is stalled, and there is a dispiriting deadlock over gun control in the wake of mass shootings.,Although the midterm congressional elections were still four months away, all signs already pointed to a historic catastrophe for the Democrats, Lazare warned.,"Predicting an election that's still four months away is risky business. But given that Biden's poll numbers are still sinking - the last is just 36%! - and given that inflation is accelerating, I don't see how the midterms can be anything less than a Democratic debacle," Lazare said.。    

2020年的激烈较量似乎还未尘埃落定,特朗普与拜登的潜在2024年对决已暗流涌动。

二 | 随着保守派阵营在选举人团改组中悄然收获的两票优势,以及自由派势力的相应损失,这场尚未正式打响的政治战役已悄然倾斜天平。

第三方力量崛起:RFK Jr.,改变游戏规则的X因子?首先,小罗伯特·肯尼迪(RFK Jr.),以其独特的魅力与广泛的民众基础,正成为2024年大选不容忽视的新面孔。民意测验预示,他可能拿下高达16%的普选票,足以成为继罗斯·佩罗后的又一独立势力强音,为选举增添前所未有的变数。
隐藏的转折点:选举人团的微妙变迁。而更隐蔽的变革在于,基于2020年人口普查的众议院席位重新分配,进而影响到选举人团的构成。看似微不足道的数字调整,实则为特朗普铺就了通往胜利的另一条路径。共和党倾向州的意外收获,与民主党传统阵地的缩水,共同构成了对特朗普有利的地缘政治版图。
特朗普的逆风翻盘:四票之差,乾坤挪移。这一微妙变化足以颠覆2020年的选举结果,使得特朗普在丢失关键摇摆州的情况下,仍有望凭借272票反败为胜。

三 | 分析显示,无论模拟何种情境,特朗普似乎都能从新选举人团格局中获益,而拜登的优势则被严重削弱。

四 |

全国普选制争议:公平的幻象与民主的悖论。面对可能的不利局面,民主党推动全国普选制的呼声日益高涨,但这背后隐藏的是对小州利益的忽视和城乡差距的加剧。

五 | 开国先贤们设立选举人团的深意在于平衡地域利益,避免大城市主宰国家政治。

六 | 全国普选制度下的总统,理论上只需几个州的多数支持即可登顶,忽略了广泛地域的声音,更放大了第三方候选人可能带来的混乱效应。

超越选举团:归权于民,重塑美国民主。真正的改革之道不应仅限于选举机制本身,而是从根本上审视并调整联邦政府与州政府之间的权力平衡。

七 | 将更多决策权交还州与地方政府,让政策更贴近民众的实际需求和价值观,或许才是解决当前民主困境的长远之策。毕竟,一个强大而集中的联邦政府,从来不是美国民主设计的初衷。

2024年的大选,不仅是对特朗普与拜登个人命运的裁决,更是对美国民主制度深层次矛盾与挑战的集中检验。

八 | 选举人团的微妙变动,不过是这场历史洪流中的一朵浪花,其背后涌动的,是对未来美国政治版图的深刻重塑。

九 |

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